So with one week left to go in the baseball season (yes baseball is indeed still going on), there are some interesting races yet to be determined. If we assume both the Angels and Cubs are in and will have home field advantage, in the AL we’re left with the race in the East, AKA who gets to host the White Sox at home, and the race in the Central (the Twins will need a sweep in their head to head).
In the NL, the DBacks have either a 5.3% or 6.9% chance of winning the West according to Baseball Prospectus and ESPN.com. I did my own analysis and I think they have a slightly higher chance of stealing the division from the Dodgers, largely due to a last weekend which will see the Dodgers face Cain and Lincecum and the Dbacks will be able to throw Haren, Webb and Randy Johnson against the Rockies.
While doing my back of the envelope analysis, I gave the Phillies a 100% chance of making the playoffs. This was confirmed by both BP and the four letter network which both give the Phillies over a 98% chance of making the playoffs.
Last week a friend of mine posted as his Facebook status that he was going long mattresses because that’s where everyone was going to start putting their money. Well, when I looked at the PROTRADE market rankings and saw the Phillies trading as the 11th best team, I decided that going long the Phillies might be more lucrative.
One last note, if you want to make some sure money, short the Tigers. I don’t think there’s any chance they are making the playoffs. Unless they are playing more than 162 games this season and nobody told me.